Odds, Pick, and Prediction | NBA Betting Preview: Timberwolves vs. Warriors
On Sunday night, the NBA betting preview will be focused on the Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors game in San Francisco.
The last time these two teams met was earlier this month, when the Timberwolves won in overtime. The season series is tied at one game each, but both were played in Minneapolis.
Let’s break down tonight’s game and make my prediction for the Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors.
Timberwolves of Minnesota
In my previous article, I discussed how D’Angelo Russell could benefit the new-look Lakers roster. Mike Conley in Minnesota is in the same boat.
Conley’s value stems from his playmaking and experience running numerous pick-and-rolls with Rudy Gobert in Utah.
The offense has benefited greatly as a result, particularly at the start of games when the starters spend the majority of their time together.
According to NBA Advanced Stats, the Wolves have a 130.4 Offensive Rating in four games with Conley, which ranks second in the NBA.
Minnesota is 3-1 to the over in the first quarter with Conley, but the Wolves were scoring early even before he arrived. According to EV Analytics, the over is 35-27 ATS (7.96% ROI) in Wolves first-quarter games. In addition, they are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten games.
The Wolves also favor the over in the first half due to their fast and sloppy play before halftime. Minnesota ranks 25th in the league in first-half turnover percentage (14.5) and plays at the fastest pace (106.5) over the last ten games.
Warriors of the Golden State
The Warriors have also been a consistent team this season, and for similar reasons — they play fast and allow a lot of turnovers.
Golden State isn’t dealing with a new problem. The Warriors played fast and loose even during the peak of their dynasty.
Full-game overs haven’t been as profitable as they could be because the Warriors tend to slow things down in the second half. We can, however, gain a significant advantage with totals early in games.
The Warriors are sixth in first-quarter pace (104.33), fourth in offensive rating (117.9), twentieth in defensive rating (115.3), and twenty-fifth in turnover percentage (25.3%). (15).
That combination has eluded the books all season, as Golden State is the second-most profitable team to the over in the first quarter (37-22-1 ATS, 19.11% ROI), according to EV Analytics.
Over bettors have also profited in the first half. In Golden State’s last ten games, the over is 32-26-2 (4.99% ROI) and 6-4 (15.07% ROI).
Pick: Timberwolves vs. Warriors
These two teams met at the start of the month, and the Warriors lost in overtime. I expect them to start fat, but they may be without their two best defenders, Draymond Green (knee), who has been tagged as questionable, and Andrew Wiggins (personal), who is doubtful and has no return date.
Furthermore, there are some compelling trends urging me to take some early overs.
According to Cleaning the Glass, the Wolves are one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to 3-point defense, ranking 22nd in Defensive 3-point Accuracy (37.2%) and 18th in 3-Point Frequency (35.6%).
Even without Stephen Curry, the Warriors shoot an absurdly high volume of 3-pointers. In only one of the Warriors’ last seven games without Curry, they have shot less than 40% from beyond the arc.
I want both teams to get out there and run. I’ll take the first quarter up to 59 points and the first half up to 119 points.
Pick: Over 59 in the first quarter/Over 119 in the first half
NBA Betting Preview | Conclusion
Looking to bet on the NBA game between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors? Check out this NBA online betting Ph preview for tips! In summary, the article highlights the strengths of both teams, with Minnesota’s offense benefiting from Mike Conley’s playmaking, and Golden State’s fast and loose style leading to many turnovers. The author predicts that both teams will score early, and suggests taking the over for the first quarter (up to 59 points) and the first half (up to 119 points). With the absence of key defenders for the Warriors, the author leans towards the Timberwolves having the edge in the game.
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